Why 2011 is not 1995

The April 19, 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing is thought by many Liberals and the Media (the two are interchangeable, for all practical purposes) to mark the beginning of President Clinton’s comeback after Republicans retook the House in the 1994 midterm elections. The bombing, and Clinton’s blaming of Talk Radio, Rush Limbaugh, and conservatives, was not the reason for his comeback. The Dot-Com bubble, cheap oil prices (West Texas Intermediate spot oil was $17.3 per barrel on July 1, 1995, which would be equivalent to $24.75 today). Nevertheless, the media and liberals both seized on the parallel, because of their tendency to act like a herd (and group-think), making Sarah Palin the Emmanuel Goldstein subject to the two minutes of hate (for Liberals and the Media, the novel “1984” is a how-to manual, not a warning). Which will ultimately fail. Because the modern media smog, while able to nudge culture in ways it wants to go anyway, is not as effective as people think.

Maudlin, emotion-mongering and two minutes of hate against Palin, might stimulate a few for a while but the effects merge into attention over Snooki and the Situation’s antics, the doings (such as they are) of the Kardashians, gossip over a reputed catfight between Scarlett Johanssen and Sandra Bullock, and the return of American Idol. Everything seems to merge together into the culture/media smog, and nothing matters. Constant repetition over years can make some ideas seem “reasonable” (such as Hollywood’s constant depiction of a Black President as wise, noble, tough, courageous, and redeeming) but only if the culture wants to go there.

Presidents are like football coaches. They have to deliver. And Obama must produce results. Just ask Denny Green, or Perry Fewell, or Herm Edwards, or Mike Singletary. All fired as head coaches. Results matter. The American people, including even SWPL White women, and professional class women, demand at the very least, no erosion in the amount and value of cash in their bank accounts. People like to spend. Buying things might be “retail therapy” but in the stress of isolation of modern life, it matters. The converse is also true, people, even SWPL women and professional class White women, ground zero of PC and “diversity” and multiculturalism, don’t tolerate for long a grinding budget battle, in their own personal spending, as rising prices and stagnant wages make their discretionary spending each month, smaller and smaller.

Obama won, over John McCain, largely because the financial crisis under George W. Bush eroded any argument McCain had over competency, particularly given McCain’s fairly obvious attempts to hand Obama the Presidency in order to gain the good opinion of the New York Times. But that same process requires Obama to post victories. Not meaningless legislative victories for passing bills (ObamaCare, Dodd-Frank, Gays in the Military) that most oppose or don’t care about. Instead, Obama has to get the equivalent of wins and playoff victories in the NFL. Or he will get fired.

Muni bonds are crashing, and the outlook for many bonds of this class is not good. Illinois is as much as five months behind payment to some vendors, and is floating a bizarre deal on Wall Street whereupon Investment Banks like Goldman Sachs would pay the vendors upfront, and then earn 1% each month from Illinois until the state can scratch up enough money to pay back the Investment Bank. Special-purpose bonds for say, Harrisburg’s incinerator, or water districts, or sewage districts have already defaulted or are in the process of defaulting. Meanwhile, the WSJ reports:

Moody’s said the vendor assistance idea may alleviate near term hardships on the vendors, but will not deal with the underlying problem: the state doesn’t have the cash to pay vendors. The financing scheme essentially shifts the debt from the vendor to a private investor.

The tax raises in Illinois, to the tune of 75% or more, are unlikely to raise the revenue projected (people will pull in spending, move jobs out of state, and otherwise reduce their tax exposure as much as possible).

Meanwhile OPEC says no relief from oil price rises. The CEO of Gulf Oil believes $150 a barrel for oil is going to be a lengthy reality. Meanwhile there is a global food crisis that is only getting worse as we compete for China and India for food (and other commodities). The overthrow of the Tunisian President is unlikely to be the only fallout of the crisis. Food price rises have not been as dramatic in the US and developed world, but it will hit us eventually. Massive rises in feedstocks such as corn, wheat, and soybeans, up almost 80% (for some feedstock) from a year ago will increase, radically, the cost of meat, dairy, and eggs. Livestock don’t exist on unicorn farts and rainbows. Meanwhile cotton prices are at historic highs, and so too are substitutes such as rayon.

What does this mean?

It means the average White professional woman, will be paying considerably more, in taxes (to bail out bankrupt states and municipalities). While shelling out more for gas every week at the pump, and the grocery store. Cotton clothing will be far more expensive, perhaps unaffordable (given 90% price rises from the past year), and rayon too will be far more costly (rayon being a rather inferior substitute for cotton, and far less comfortable). She’ll be eating less of what she likes, and more of what she doesn’t. Buying far less clothing, and inferior clothes to what she purchased just a few years ago (under George W. Bush).

These key voters, who will form either Obama’s victory coalition (pushing him over the top along with Gay, Black, Hispanic, and elite White voters) or margin of defeat. Obama has already lost White male voters, blue collar White voters, while retaining Black and Hispanic voters. The margin of victory or defeat, is contained within the SPWL, professional class White woman voter demographic.

Obama’s allies, no doubt Obama himself, and the media, have bet pretty everything that a massive campaign of two minutes of hate against Sarah Palin, maudlin emotion mongering, and blaming the Tea Party, Palin, and Rush Limbaugh for a leftwing nutcase’s shooting of an obscure, if youngish White professional female Congresswoman, will be enough to win the votes of the SWPL female demographic.

It is a poor bet. One likely to fail. Yes, making Limbaugh and others in the Conservative movement in 1995 look responsible for Oklahoma City certainly helped with the Gender Gap, and generating White female votes for Democrats. But the real reason Clinton won was cheap gas and a booming economy. And that was with about 300 people killed. In a year, no one will even remember Gabrielle Giffords, sad to say. The American attention span is short. People are concerned mostly about their own economic situation.

Yes, the victims killed in the shooting were ignored, in favor of the photogenic, SWPL-like Congresswoman, to appeal to the emotions (along with the slain nine year old girl) of SWPL women. No doubt that is partially effective. But far more effective is the argument, “are you better off now than you were four years ago?” It cuts to the heart of the matter. Presidents are expected to deliver results, just like football coaches.

Obama, who has NEVER been able to deliver concrete, measurable results to voters, must now play defense, and deliver results. In less than two years. He must drive gas and oil and energy prices down. Considerably. While creating new jobs, wage increases, and an increase in real purchasing power (by increasing earnings more than price rises for commodities). It does not matter if a few million yuppies have enough money to buy new Iphones. What matters is Jane Professional woman, having enough left over after savings, paying for gas, and food, and other necessities, can spend enough to make her feel good without a gnawing anxiety over her personal budget.

Just ask Mike Singletary.

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About whiskeysplace

Conservative blogger focusing on culture, business, technology, and how they intersect.
This entry was posted in arizona, culture, demographics, economics, more, obama, politics. Bookmark the permalink.

17 Responses to Why 2011 is not 1995

  1. Anonymous says:

    Whiskey,Everything you have said is true. As a former owner of a convenience store it shocks me how little people fail to realized that they were paying roughly 25% in taxes at the pump per gallon. My store had gas 1.10 with us acquiring it at $.75 ten years ago. Today, that same store has gas at 2.89. and probably gets it for 1.76. and then factors in tax markups and profits. Now that there is competition with wal-mart etc. a convenience store has a hope of making $.05 per gallon depending on location relative to Wal-mart and other competitors, as well as traffic flow.If the price were 1.10 would our nation even be in an economic recession? Would Obama even be in political trouble? I think not.CoreyAn African American former business owner

  2. Anonymous says:

    Liberals are going insane over Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, FOX News, The Tea Party. It's hilarious hearing their rants on the Internet.

  3. Kinuachdrach says:

    It is not even clear that 1995 was 1995. The common hypothesis that OK City turned things around for Clinton in the 1996 Presidential election is not supported by the facts.Votes cast for Democrat candidates in Presidenital elections since Watergate have gone up more or less at the rate of population growth — voting Democrat seems to be almost biologically determined, like eye color. Democrat votes for the years around the 1996 election –1988-Dukakis 41.81 Million votes1992-Clinton 44.91 (+7.4%)1996-Clinton 47.40 (+5.5%)2000-Gore 51.00 (+7.6%)No Clinton 1996 bounce from OK City there.As an aside, Presidential elections since Watergate have been determined by the number of people who vote for the Republican candidate — which has been highly variable, depending on the candidate. The Contingent Voter rules!

  4. The death toll at Oklahoma City was 168, not 300.Still, your point stands. Even Palin could beat him if gas spikes to $4.50 for six months, and if there is a double dip recession (although the GOP will probably play it safe and nominate a less hated candidate).I was pleasantly surprised to see poll results indicating that the media's post Tucson blame campaign had failed. Plus, Tucson is likely a blessing in disguise for the right. It has won leftists few new converts and strengthened conservative resolve due to media hysterics and orgiastic Palinophobia. The shooting also made it less likely that Palin will run, clearing the way for someone whom moderate women will find palatable.At present I'd give 0bama a 55-60% chance of reelection, with the following factors in his favor:-95% lock on minority/urban leftist votes-Work ethic (though shockingly lazy in every other aspect of his life, he loves campaigning)-Republican weakness in crucial purple states (Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico)-Financial backing from illegal foreign contributions-Weak Republican field of challengers-Media interference-Good speaking abilities in scripted venuesRepublicans need to take advantage of the following factors working against him:-Long-term economic weakness, likely to persist into 2012. -O's economic illiteracy (he didn't know what P/E ratio or what capital gains taxes were). A detail-oriented candidate will make him look stupid during the debates.-High energy costs, & 0bama's masochistic energy policy ("bankrupt" the coal industry, pay Brazil to drill off the Continental Shelf while laying off American oil rig workers)-Future bailouts of liberal states (will alienate moderate voters, and will only be popular with demographics that 0bama already has)-0's horrible off-the-cuff speaking(abysmal performance against McCain at Saddleback, for instance). -Major crises abroad, as the usual suspects try to sway US election results.-Pathological personality traits (self pity, narcissism, & grievance mongering despite superficial charm).The way forward for conservatives? Intense emphasis on issues of immediate concern to everyone. Energy costs and fiscal responsibility. Plus creation of a political narrative (without the media's help) that plays up 0bama's personal flaws to moderate whites. Your analogies about failed black coaches & sports stars are spot on. Although most whites are prone to make excuses for black failings, mainstream whites of both genders do not consider whining/shirking to be "Alpha" behavior. Least of all if you are a minority political/sports star who owes your success to white goodwill. If you have been promoted ahead of whites and made more money than whites all your life, a massive persecution complex ("downright mean country", "they talk about me like I'm a dog", etc) seems misplaced, to say the least.

  5. So: yes, a person gets out on bond. But the amount of the bail is still the amount somebody has to pay if the person skips town. And that's what the judges set.

  6. Anonymous says:

    ^ odd sort of thing to be spamming about

  7. The death toll at Oklahoma City was 168, not 300.Still, your point stands. Even Palin could beat him if gas spikes to $4.50 for six months, and if there is a double dip recession (although the GOP will probably play it safe and nominate a less hated candidate).I was pleasantly surprised to see poll results indicating that the media's post Tucson blame campaign had failed. Plus, Tucson is likely a blessing in disguise for the right. It has won leftists few new converts and strengthened conservative resolve due to media hysterics and orgiastic Palinophobia. The shooting also made it less likely that Palin will run, clearing the way for someone whom moderate women will find palatable.At present I'd give 0bama a 55-60% chance of reelection, with the following factors in his favor:-95% lock on minority/urban leftist votes-Work ethic (though shockingly lazy in every other aspect of his life, he loves campaigning)-Republican weakness in crucial purple states (Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico)-Financial backing from illegal foreign contributions-Weak Republican field of challengers-Media interference-Good speaking abilities in scripted venuesRepublicans need to take advantage of the following factors working against him:-Long-term economic weakness, likely to persist into 2012. -O's economic illiteracy (he didn't know what P/E ratio or what capital gains taxes were). A detail-oriented candidate will make him look stupid during the debates.-High energy costs, & 0bama's masochistic energy policy ("bankrupt" the coal industry, pay Brazil to drill off the Continental Shelf while laying off American oil rig workers)-Future bailouts of liberal states (will alienate moderate voters, and will only be popular with demographics that 0bama already has)-0's horrible off-the-cuff speaking(abysmal performance against McCain at Saddleback, for instance). -Major crises abroad, as the usual suspects try to sway US election results.-Pathological personality traits (self pity, narcissism, & grievance mongering despite superficial charm).The way forward for conservatives? Intense emphasis on issues of immediate concern to everyone. Energy costs and fiscal responsibility. Plus creation of a political narrative (without the media's help) that plays up 0bama's personal flaws to moderate whites. Your analogies about failed black coaches & sports stars are spot on. Although most whites are prone to make excuses for black failings, mainstream whites of both genders do not consider whining/shirking to be "Alpha" behavior. Least of all if you are a minority political/sports star who owes your success to white goodwill. If you have been promoted ahead of whites and made more money than whites all your life, a massive persecution complex ("downright mean country", "they talk about me like I'm a dog", etc) seems misplaced, to say the least.

  8. The death toll at Oklahoma City was 168, not 300.Still, your point stands. Even Palin could beat him if gas spikes to $4.50 for six months, and if there is a double dip recession (although the GOP will probably play it safe and nominate a less hated candidate).I was pleasantly surprised to see poll results indicating that the media's post Tucson blame campaign had failed. Plus, Tucson is likely a blessing in disguise for the right. It has won leftists few new converts and strengthened conservative resolve due to media hysterics and orgiastic Palinophobia. The shooting also made it less likely that Palin will run, clearing the way for someone whom moderate women will find palatable.At present I'd give 0bama a 55-60% chance of reelection, with the following factors in his favor:-95% lock on minority/urban leftist votes-Work ethic (though shockingly lazy in every other aspect of his life, he loves campaigning)-Republican weakness in crucial purple states (Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico)-Financial backing from illegal foreign contributions-Weak Republican field of challengers-Media interference-Good speaking abilities in scripted venuesRepublicans need to take advantage of the following factors working against him:-Long-term economic weakness, likely to persist into 2012. -O's economic illiteracy (he didn't know what P/E ratio or what capital gains taxes were). A detail-oriented candidate will make him look stupid during the debates.-High energy costs, & 0bama's masochistic energy policy ("bankrupt" the coal industry, pay Brazil to drill off the Continental Shelf while laying off American oil rig workers)-Future bailouts of liberal states (will alienate moderate voters, and will only be popular with demographics that 0bama already has)-0's horrible off-the-cuff speaking(abysmal performance against McCain at Saddleback, for instance). -Major crises abroad, as the usual suspects try to sway US election results.-Pathological personality traits (self pity, narcissism, & grievance mongering despite superficial charm).The way forward for conservatives? Intense emphasis on issues of immediate concern to everyone. Energy costs and fiscal responsibility. Plus creation of a political narrative (without the media's help) that plays up 0bama's personal flaws to moderate whites. Your analogies about failed black coaches & sports stars are spot on. Although most whites are prone to make excuses for black failings, mainstream whites of both genders do not consider whining/shirking to be "Alpha" behavior. Least of all if you are a minority political/sports star who owes your success to white goodwill. If you have been promoted ahead of whites and made more money than whites all your life, a massive persecution complex ("downright mean country", "they talk about me like I'm a dog", etc) seems misplaced, to say the least.

  9. The death toll at Oklahoma City was 168, not 300.Still, your point stands. Even Palin could beat him if gas spikes to $4.50 for six months, and if there is a double dip recession (although the GOP will probably play it safe and nominate a less hated candidate).I was pleasantly surprised to see poll results indicating that the media's post Tucson blame campaign had failed. Plus, Tucson is likely a blessing in disguise for the right. It has won leftists few new converts and strengthened conservative resolve due to media hysterics and orgiastic Palinophobia. The shooting also made it less likely that Palin will run, clearing the way for someone whom moderate women will find palatable.At present I'd give 0bama a 55-60% chance of reelection, with the following factors in his favor:-95% lock on minority/urban leftist votes-Work ethic (though shockingly lazy in every other aspect of his life, he loves campaigning)-Republican weakness in crucial purple states (Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico)-Financial backing from illegal foreign contributions-Weak Republican field of challengers-Media interference-Good speaking abilities in scripted venuesRepublicans need to take advantage of the following factors working against him:-Long-term economic weakness, likely to persist into 2012. -O's economic illiteracy (he didn't know what P/E ratio or what capital gains taxes were). A detail-oriented candidate will make him look stupid during the debates.-High energy costs, & 0bama's masochistic energy policy ("bankrupt" the coal industry, pay Brazil to drill off the Continental Shelf while laying off American oil rig workers)-Future bailouts of liberal states (will alienate moderate voters, and will only be popular with demographics that 0bama already has)-0's horrible off-the-cuff speaking(abysmal performance against McCain at Saddleback, for instance). -Major crises abroad, as the usual suspects try to sway US election results.-Pathological personality traits (self pity, narcissism, & grievance mongering despite superficial charm).The way forward for conservatives? Intense emphasis on issues of immediate concern to everyone. Energy costs and fiscal responsibility. Plus creation of a political narrative (without the media's help) that plays up 0bama's personal flaws to moderate whites. Your analogies about failed black coaches & sports stars are spot on. Although most whites are prone to make excuses for black failings, mainstream whites of both genders do not consider whining/shirking to be "Alpha" behavior. Least of all if you are a minority political/sports star who owes your success to white goodwill. If you have been promoted ahead of whites and made more money than whites all your life, a massive persecution complex ("downright mean country", "they talk about me like I'm a dog", etc) seems misplaced, to say the least.

  10. Jules says:

    http://www.deadline.com/2011/01/disney-nixes-propaganda-video-game-studio/Gee, its almost as if they couldn't figure out how to make a product that would appeal to the billion dollar video game market, filled with the 18-35 male demographic.

  11. Nine-of-Diamonds said…"-O's economic illiteracy (he didn't know what P/E ratio or what capital gains taxes were).Is this realy true? P/E is realy basic stock market knowledge.

  12. papabear says:

    Whiskey, any opinions on the purchase of NBC by Comcast?

  13. feeblemind says:

    Baseball Crank has a similar post here that is quite good: http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2011/01/politics_why_20.phpOff topic: I would like to call your attention to an article titled 'Sarah Palin and the Battle for Feminism' at City Journalhttp://www.city-journal.org/2011/21_1_palin.htmlOne of the most interesting snippets was in the last paragraph where it is stated that more women, women, not just married women, voted for Republicans than democrats in the last Congressional election.

  14. Anonymous says:

    feeblemind – Sarah Palin is a Tea Partier and a Libertarian (not a traditional conservative). This is not about feminism or anti-feminism to her. To Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck it's mostly about fame, money and popularity. It's about libertarianism, free-market capitalism, freedom and democracy/republic. Sarah Palin wants her books and reality TV Show. The article at CityJournal is ridiculous.

  15. Anonymous says:

    BOYCOTT AMERICAN WOMENWhy American men should boycott American womenhttp://boycottamericanwomen.blogspot.com/I am an American man, and I have decided to boycott American women. In a nutshell, American women are the most likely to cheat on you, to divorce you, to get fat, to steal half of your money in the divorce courts, don't know how to cook or clean, don't want to have children, etc. Therefore, what intelligent man would want to get involved with American women?American women are generally immature, selfish, extremely arrogant and self-centered, mentally unstable, irresponsible, and highly unchaste. The behavior of most American women is utterly disgusting, to say the least.This blog is my attempt to explain why I feel American women are inferior to foreign women (non-American women), and why American men should boycott American women, and date/marry only foreign (non-American) women.BOYCOTT AMERICAN WOMEN!

  16. Anonymous says:

    Whiskey,Everything you said might be true provided we continue in this same crazy path. I never got worked up over the Obama craze, I am a non-American black US citizen. Actually, if anyone could have paused and been able to see beyond the racial intonations non of this would have come to pass.In the end it could be the same SWPL professional woman who will be in more financial trouble because of all their excessive spending and/or shopping.

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